The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast by 1.2 percentage points to 2.9% for 2022, warning that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, with many countries likely to face recession.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine had magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which was now entering what could become “a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation,” the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report.
World Bank President David Malpass said global growth was being hammered by the war, fresh COVID-19 lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions and the risk of stagflation, a period of weak growth and high inflation last seen in the 1970s.
“The danger of stagflation is considerable today,” Malpass wrote in the foreword to the report. “Subdued growth will likely persist throughout the decade because of weak investment in most of the world. With inflation now running at multi-decade highs in many countries and supply expected to grow slowly, there is a risk that inflation will remain higher for longer.” Between 2021 and 2024, the pace of global growth is projected to slow by 2.7 percentage points, Malpass said, more than twice the deceleration seen between 1976 and 1979.
The report warned that interest rate increases required to control inflation at the end of the 1970s were so steep that they touched off a global recession in 1982, and a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies.
While there were similarities to conditions back then, there were also important differences, including the strength of the U.S. dollar and generally lower oil prices, as well as generally strong balance sheets at major financial institutions.
To reduce the risks, policymakers should work to coordinate aid for Ukraine, counter the spike in oil and food prices, step up debt relief, strengthen efforts to contain COVID-19, and speed the transition to a low-carbon economy, Malpass said.
The bank forecast a slump in global growth to 2.9% in 2022 from 5.7 percent in 2021, with growth to hover near that level in 2023 and 2024. It said global inflation should moderate next year but would likely remain above targets in many economies.
Growth in advanced economies was projected to decelerate sharply to 2.6% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023 after hitting 5.1% in 2021.
Emerging market and developing economies were seen achieving growth of just 3.4% in 2022, down from 6.6% in 2021, and well below the annual average of 4.8% seen in 2011-2019.
Negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine would more than offset any near-term boost reaped by commodity exporters from higher energy prices, with 2022 growth forecasts revised down in nearly 70% of emerging markets and developing economies.
The regional European and Central Asian economy, which does not include Western Europe, was expected to contract by 2.9% after growth of 6.5% in 2021, rebounding slightly to growth of 1.5% in 2023. Ukraine’s economy was expected to contract by 45.1% and Russia’s by 8.9%.
Growth was expected to decelerate sharply in Latin America and the Caribbean, reaching just 2.5% this year and slowing further to 1.9% in 2023, the bank said.
The Middle East and North Africa would benefit from rising oil prices, with growth seen reaching 5.3% in 2022 before slowing to 3.6% in 2023, while South Asia would see growth of 6.8% this year and 5.8% in 2023.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth was expect to slow somewhat to 3.7% in 2022 from 4.2% in 2021, the bank said.