Bitcoin on edge as economy falters: 10x Research report
(Crypto News)-07/08/2024
Recent findings from a 10x Research report reveal growing concerns about the United States’ economic strength, which could have significant repercussions for the crypto market.
The report shared with Cointelegraph reveals that the Bitcoin price could fall (and stay) below the psychological mark of $50,000, signaling red flags for other cryptocurrencies.
The ISM Manufacturing Index, a traditional economic health barometer at the core of these concerns, has recently witnessed a substantial downturn.
Speaking with Cointelegraph, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, explained that it “may be premature” for crypto traders to open further leveraged long positions.
“The market structure, including fiat-to-crypto on-ramps, has been weak for months […] it’s unlikely that significant players will invest amid high volatility and unpredictable prices. Many still need to exit positions and deleverage their portfolios.”
Bitcoin and stock market implications
The disconnect revealed in the 10x Research report speculates that the historical correlation between the ISM Index and BTC indicates a bleak forecast for the crypto market.
“Historically, Bitcoin has experienced sharp corrections when the ISM peaked.”
While the ISM Index now indicates economic weakness and the stock market is potentially inflated, the report reveals that adjustments are expected imminently.
“The S&P 500 might need to align with the ‘real’ economy, potentially leading to a 20% stock decline.”
The US economy shows signs of weakness
The report’s insights highlight that the US economy’s status is unsteady due to the shifting position of the US Federal Reserve:
“In the past 48 hours, it has become apparent that the US economy is weaker than the Federal Reserve initially believed.”
The report further highlights that Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this point, indicating a potential dovish shift in policy if inflation decreases as anticipated, aiming to cushion further economic downturns.
BTC dominance shift
On Aug. 5, BTC dominance, a ratio of the asset’s market capitalization to the rest of the crypto market, hit a new yearly high of 58% as crypto and stock markets crashed.
The shift in dominance percentage co-aligned with the sudden sell-off of Ether, which fell by as much as 18% in two hours.
IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore informed Cointelegraph that this collapse in market price amid a rise in BTC dominance reminds the market that crypto sits at the “pointy end” of the risk asset spectrum.
