Saudi economic ‘overheating’ fears emerge as constraint

(The Business Times)-15/05/2024

SAUDI Arabia wants to avoid sending the economy into overdrive as it channels investments with the goal of pivoting the nation away from oil dependency.

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said on Tuesday (May 14) that while his country’s massive investments are helping to grow the non-oil economy, the kingdom needs to be careful about “overheating” – which could cause inflation to quicken – and “leakages”.

“If you don’t allow your economy to catch up with your projects, basically what will happen is you will import a lot more,” Al-Jadaan said at the Qatar Economic Forum. As a result, Saudi Arabia could lack the factories and other capacity needed to support its plans, according to Al-Jadaan.

“So giving it more time is actually wise,” he said.

The economic makeover, known as Vision 2030, has been hitting some snags eight years after being unveiled by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Al-Jadaan has previously acknowledged that there may be delays or acceleration for some projects.

Under the crown prince’s blueprint, Saudi Arabia is pumping hundreds of billions of US dollars into everything from electric vehicles to semiconductors and sports.

“It’s not actually the funding that is the constraint,” the finance minister said on Tuesday. “It’s actually the economic leakage.”

Faster price growth and overheating of the US$1.1 trillion economy would likely result from spending “under the current circumstances of serious inflation pressures around the world and serious increases in the cost of funding”, Al-Jadaan said.

The kingdom’s budget has swung into deficit after its first surplus in years, mainly due to lower energy prices and production and its spending commitments. It now forecasts fiscal shortfalls until 2026.

But Al-Jadaan said he was confident the kingdom will deliver on the plans despite the hefty price tag, as it derives more income from non-oil sources and takes a cautious approach in assuming how much it might earn from crude.

“We are very conservative in our projections and therefore our plans on how the oil revenue will cover that expenditure,” he said.

The government of the State of Qatar is the underwriter of the Qatar Economic Forum, Powered by Bloomberg.