Bitcoin futures premium hits 7-week high: is the rally sustainable?

(Coin Telegraph)-05/06/2024

Bitcoin gained 2.5% on June 3 to $69,400, sparking hopes that it might reclaim the $69,000 support level for the first time in 11 days. This positive price movement coincided with a surge in the Bitcoin futures premium to its highest level in seven weeks. But what does this mean for the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally toward $70,000?

GameStop mania and weaker odds of Fed’s interest rate cuts

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin’s recent price jump was partly influenced by GameStop’s (GME) impressive 36% rally. This surge in GameStop stock rekindled memories of the 2021 anti-traditional finance sentiment when retail investors banded together to challenge the status quo. This sentiment appears to have spilled over into the memecoin sector as Floki gained 16.5%, Dogwifhat (WIF) 9%, and Bonk rallied 7.5%.

Additionally, comments from the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) of Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari have added to the uncertainty. The Fed official stated that he doesn’t foresee a rate cut anytime soon, citing Americans’ strong aversion to inflation. This stance, although not universally shared among Fed officials, is seen as negative for the housing and stock markets. As a result, some investors are turning to alternative investments like Bitcoin.

Global geopolitical tensions have also played a role in Bitcoin’s recent price action. Australia’s decision to order Chinese investors to reduce their stakes in a rare earths miner has heightened uncertainty in global markets. This move coincided with a 1% gain in gold and a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with the 5-year yield dropping to 4.42% from 4.59% on May 31.

Bitcoin derivatives support further price gains

The Bitcoin futures premium reflects the difference between the monthly contracts derivatives markets and the spot level on regular exchanges. Usually, a 5% to 10% annualized premium (basis) occurs to compensate for the extended settlement. In essence, a higher premium suggests that traders are willing to pay more for future contracts, indicating bullish sentiment.